Een vernietigend rapport over de huizenprijzen in Nederland.....
Prepared for the 5th Conference of the Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics (IFC)
"Initiatives to Address Data Gaps Revealed by the Financial Crisis" held at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Basel, Switzerland, 25-26 August 2010
The Dutch owner-occupier housing market is currently characterized by very high price levels in real terms. In February 2010, the IMF released its most recent financial and economic assessment of the Netherlands. As regards the housing sector, the IMF concluded that the market was broadly in line with fundamentals. We review this IMF analysis. We conclude that the IMF's interpretation of the Dutch housing market as fundamentally healthy, stable and sustainable, is flawed and misguided. Adopting a methodologically sound household lifecycle perspective, and using official data and statistics on relevant variables, our analysis shows that Dutch real house prices are now at broadly twice the level which corresponds with long-term sustainability. In other words, currently the housing market for owner-occupiers in the Netherlands is overvalued by around 100%. We highlight the major inherent risks which this poses for the structural economic and financial stability in the country. We conclude with a number of fundamental policy measures which aim to deflate this house price bubble in a rapid and controlled manner, and which will ensure and maintain the long-term sustainability of the Dutch housing market.
Lees verder / Read more : http://www.bis.org/ifc/events/5ifcconf/xu.pdf
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