Constantino de Miguel, euronews: “Professor Niño Becerra, you are forecasting a crash for 2010. But stock markets and the economic outlook are improving… How is this possible?”

Professor Niño Becerra, economist: “The crash I’m predicting is the conclusion of a pre-crisis process that started back in September 2007 when the subprime meltdown broke out. The way things have been done has led to exhaustion; credit, consumption and debt have reached a limit. The stock market has been on the rise for reasons of pure speculation, and because of the money fed to them (sic) for financial restructuring. I believe this ‘flowering’ will last for — maximum — two more months, and then will come the fall.”

euronews: “How long before this crash? What month can we can expect such a catastrophe?!”

Becerra: “I believe this situation will come around halfway through 2010, between June and August.”

euronews: “Better not think about going on holiday?”

Becerra: “Well, to be honest, holidays this year are going to be very, very complicated… for other reasons as well, take care: not only because of the crash but because, as a result, families will not be able to afford to go on vacation, not to speak of companies’ supply of credit. It will be very tough scraping up the cash even for small things. A study in Spain says that 60% of households are having trouble stretching their budgets to the end of the month. This is a significant finding.”

euronews: “One last point: You told me this will be a ‘final exam’ for Europe, that if it can’t overcome this it will be every man for himself. Are we really in such a bad state?”

Becerra: “Europe since the Treaty of Rome has been running around in circles trying to get things done. It has achieved some things, like the Single Market, but now the situation is very serious. There is too much production capacity and overcapacity in the labour force, and this has to be coordinated. From my point of view, when it was going well for Europe, it didn’t manage to unite; when things went wrong it couldn’t get it together either. I think that when things get really very bad, that will be Europe’s final test, it will be Europe’s last chance. Europe either unites now or it never will.”